0.0%
CBB Target ATS
283 games, 4 seasons
0.0%
NBA 2025-26
target pattern, current season
0.0%
NBA All Seasons
733 games, 5 seasons
0+
Games Validated
CBB + NBA combined
College basketball (4 seasons, 2022-26) and NBA (5 seasons, 2021-26), tested on data the models never saw. NBA target pattern at 61.2% this season — the strongest in 5 years. The target pattern misses ~28% of the time — expect losing streaks within any given month.
Chalk compares its model prediction against the live 2H market line. Every element is a decision input.
Game state at halftime, classified by score differential. Each regime has distinct second-half characteristics.
Eight models produce a second-half projection. Chalk compares it to the live market line — the gap is the raw signal.
Direction and magnitude of the model-market divergence. One factor among several the edge engine evaluates.
Calibrated range on the second-half outcome. No false precision — the uncertainty is part of the signal.
Conference context is one of several dimensions Chalk uses when classifying game situations.
No single field is the signal — Chalk's published edges combine multiple factors. Subscribers see full details in-app.
Chalk tracks your position against the spread in real time — cover margin, trajectory, hedge sizing, and middle detection all updating as every basket lands.
Around the 9-minute mark of the second half, winners separate from losers. That's when hedging, hold decisions, and middle opportunities actually matter.
Toggle alerts on Chalk's published edges or your own custom strategies. SMS fires within seconds of halftime — tap the link to open the game and manage your position live.
CBB Target Pattern: TEAM A @ TEAM B
published edge matched at halftime
HT: 38-35
chalk.is/game/8050...
Other tools give you picks. Chalk gives you a research lab. Partition four seasons of data across dozens of dimensions — then prove your thesis before you risk a dollar.
487 matching games
Top 20%
63.2%
ATS
54.1–72.3%
+18.4%
ROI
97 games
Top 40%
58.7%
ATS
51.4–65.9%
+11.2%
ROI
195 games
Top 60%
55.1%
ATS
49–61.2%
+4.8%
ROI
292 games
HMAC-signed webhooks at halftime. Discord and Telegram bots in minutes. Live position polling with Greeks. Automated P&L tracking — the full pipeline from signal to settlement, one API key.
Halftime signal hits your endpoint in under a second.
# Incoming webhook payload (POST to your endpoint)# Headers:# X-Chalk-Signature: sha256=9a4f2e...# X-Chalk-Timestamp: 1711843200{ "event": "signal.matched", "data": { "game_id": "401820795", "away_team": "Team A", "home_team": "Team B", "halftime_margin": <int>, "regime": "<regime>", "signal": "<direction>", "model_implied_2h": <float>, "market_2h_line": <float>, "divergence": <float>, "filter_name": "My Custom Strategy" }}7-day free trial on every tier. Cancel anytime.
Three things: the gap between Chalk's model prediction and the live second-half market line, a game-state classification that contextualizes the signal, and a calibrated confidence range on the second-half outcome. Every element is a decision input.
Eight models working together — deep learning trained on play-by-play data from 60,000+ games, plus statistical models that capture how scores evolve through a game. They specialize in different things: momentum, volatility, comeback dynamics. The output isn't a single number — it's a full probability range on the second-half margin, so you see the confidence behind every signal.
Within seconds of halftime. Chalk runs all eight models against the live 2H line the moment it's posted — regime, divergence, and confidence range appear on your dashboard instantly. SMS alerts fire immediately. During the second half, Cover Dynamics updates in real time as every basket changes your position.
We studied every target pattern game across four seasons. Before 9 minutes into the second half, eventual winners and losers look identical — both are noisy. Around 9 minutes, trajectory plus current position start to separate outcomes dramatically. That's the inflection point where hedge-or-hold decisions actually matter.
Every result is out-of-sample — tested on data the models never trained on. The target pattern is deliberately narrow — not a broad claim that works everywhere. It misses ~28% of the time. Click 'View Full Backtest' on any published edge to see every individual game. We publish the loss rate because the edge is real enough to survive scrutiny.
The same framework as options pricing, applied to spread positions. Theta measures time decay on your cover margin. Delta measures score sensitivity. Gamma tracks how fast Delta changes. Vega quantifies your volatility exposure. Together they answer: how is my position aging, and what does the next basket do to it? Available on the Syndicate tier.
Billing pauses automatically after late June. No charges July through September. Resumes in October with email reminders and one-click cancel.
College basketball and NBA. Second-half spreads at halftime — that's where the gap between model and market is widest and the historical edge is strongest. Chalk is purpose-built for this one market and fits into your existing workflow for line shopping and bankroll management.